Mortgage Rates Fall Below 7% for the First Time in Months

Mortgage rates witnessed a significant drop this week, falling below 7% for the first time since mid-August. While this may not be enough to revive the housing market entirely, further declines could be on the horizon.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for this week stood at 6.95%. This decline can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and their economic forecasts. As a result, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 3.949% on Thursday morning, marking its lowest level since late July. It is worth noting that mortgage rates often move in conjunction with 10-year Treasuries.

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, welcomed the news, stating, "Potential homebuyers received welcome news this week. Given inflation continues to decelerate, and the Federal Reserve's intention to lower the federal funds target rate next year, we are likely to see a gradual thawing of the housing market in the new year."

Now, lower rates are indeed an encouraging sign for prospective buyers, especially for first-time buyers. However, for the majority of homeowners who already enjoy ultralow mortgage rates, these declines may not make a significant financial difference. According to ICE Mortgage Technology data, as of October's end, the median first-lien mortgage holder had a rate of approximately 3.63%. In fact, about 96% of all mortgage holders had rates below 6.9%.

Nonetheless, recent data suggests that these lower rates have already made an impact on some buyers and homeowners. Redfin's index measuring requests for tours and other related services has witnessed a 3% increase from the previous month.

Further Savings Anticipated as Mortgage Rates May Ease in the Coming Weeks

According to Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, there is potential for further savings in the near future. Walden believes that if rates continue to ease in the coming weeks, the bond market's positive response to recent economic news and the latest Fed dot plots could generate additional buyer interest. However, Walden notes that the 2024 homebuying season's demand will ultimately depend on where 30-year rates stand early next year.

Predictions by housing economists suggest that mortgage rates will decline in 2024. The National Association of Realtors estimates that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be around 6.3% as the Fed implements rate cuts. On the other hand, the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts rates to reach 6.1% by the end of next year. Realtor.com predicts that rates will average 6.8% in 2024 but will decrease to 6.5% by the year's end.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's index, tracking applications for home purchase loans, has recently rebounded from multidecade lows. Additionally, refinance applications experienced a surge for two consecutive weeks. Last week alone, refinance applications rose by approximately 19%, marking the largest seasonally-adjusted weekly increase since January.

Refinance volume has shown signs of improvement, according to Mike Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Chief Economist. Fratantoni mentioned that although it remains at very low levels, many mortgage borrowers have secured rates in the sevens or even higher ranges over the past year. With some lenders now offering rates below 7%, there is bound to be considerable interest as consumers seek savings.