Inflation Report Shakes Up Wall Street's Forecasts

Stocks experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday as investors reacted to a higher-than-expected January inflation reading. The S&P 500 was down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 455.18 points, or 1.2%. Alongside this, bond yields saw a significant increase, with the two-year U.S. Treasury note yield reaching 4.61%, its highest level in about two months.

The latest data didn't bode well for investors who were hoping for a smooth journey toward the 2% annual inflation target. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% in January, exceeding expectations by a tenth of a point and marking a 3.1% increase from the previous year. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also saw a rise of 0.4% last month, bringing its 12-month gain to 3.9%. This matches the previous month's change and puts a stop to the declining inflation trend observed throughout most of the past year.

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, highlighted the complexity of the inflation problem, stating that it is not well understood and does not follow a linear path. He further suggested that the latest CPI report calls into question the timing of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and raises the possibility that we may see another interest-rate hike in this cycle.

To confirm such a scenario, it would likely require another spike in inflation for February and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Currently, interest-rate futures pricing indicates less than a 10% chance of the Federal Open Market Committee lowering its rate target next month—down from nearly 80% just a month ago—with no chance of a rate hike. Moreover, the odds for the FOMC's May decision have also shifted to favor no change in rates. As recently as mid-January, the market was anticipating at least two rate cuts by that time, with an 83% likelihood.

In conclusion, the unexpected rise in January's inflation has prompted a revision of interest-rate expectations on Wall Street. Instead of earlier forecasts, which predicted rate cuts in 2024, the markets now anticipate a potential cut as late as June. Additionally, the possibility of the Federal Reserve resuming rate increases cannot be ruled out.

The Fed Stays Cautious as Inflation Concerns Linger

The Federal Reserve, headed by Chairman Jerome Powell, is adopting a wait-and-see approach as they closely monitor the current state of inflation. While inflation has decreased significantly from its peak, policymakers are not yet convinced that the battle against inflation has been won. Powell emphasized this during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Jan. 31. He expressed that although the lower inflation readings in the latter half of last year are positive, more evidence is needed to build confidence that inflation is consistently moving toward the target goal.

Contrary to expectations, January's data provided evidence that services inflation remains persistent. The combination of rising shelter prices and wage gains in the tight U.S. labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices.

Both the financial markets and the Federal Reserve will continue to be highly sensitive to monthly inflation readings as the debate surrounding the future trajectory of inflation persists. Since the onset of the pandemic, economic data have proven to be unusually difficult to forecast accurately, often wrongfooting even seasoned experts.

It is anticipated that arguments will be put forth from both sides. Some argue that the robust economy and strong job market will lead to resurgent inflation, warranting potential rate hikes. On the other hand, proponents of an alternative view believe that we will witness a continued decline in price increases, potentially leading to rate cuts.

In this context, BofA Securities economists stand firm in their prediction that rate cuts will commence in June. While the risks are now leaning toward a possible delay, four more Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are slated for release before the June decision. This provides ample time to reassess the inflation narrative and determine whether the January inflation data was merely a temporary blip or the start of a new trend.

In light of these uncertainties, perhaps investors should take a cue from the Federal Reserve and exercise patience while observing how the situation unfolds.