Falling Compensation for High-Yield Bonds

BofA Global Research has noted that compensation for investors in high-yield bonds has decreased to levels that are only sustainable in a strong economic environment.

Understanding High-Yield Bonds

High-yield bonds, also known as junk debt due to their below-investment-grade ratings, offer higher yields compared to investment-grade bonds. This is to offset the risk associated with investing in speculative-grade debt.

Tightened Spreads

Last week, junk-bond spreads over comparable Treasurys narrowed, with "single-B" rated bonds reaching a post-global-financial-crisis low of 317 basis points. Bonds with a "BB" rating were also close, standing at 189 basis points according to BofA credit strategists.

Economic Growth

The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 3.2%, albeit slower than the strong growth seen in the previous quarter. Despite this, the economy has shown resilience amidst the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening measures.

Fed Expectations

Market expectations for the Fed to initiate rate cuts this year have been pushed back as a result of hawkish Fedspeak. The current projection is for only 3.3 cuts in 2024, compared to the initial expectation of six cuts just a month ago.

Anticipated Rate Cuts

Investors are anticipating rate cuts by the Fed this year in response to decreasing inflation levels. The Fed had initially raised rates aggressively to control the economy and lower inflation but has since maintained them in the 5.25% to 5.50% range.

Strong Credit Market Conditions

Despite the shift in rate expectations, BofA strategists highlight that credit market conditions remain robust, reflecting confidence in the overall market stability. U.S. High-Yield Market Continues Strong Performance

In the year 2024, the U.S. high-yield market is on a hot streak, with spreads tightening to 323 basis points as of Feb. 25. According to CreditSights analysts, this marks the lowest level since early 2022, showcasing a positive trend in the market despite past challenges.

Historical Context and Current Trends

The all-time tight for high-yield spreads was 241 basis points back in June 2007, just before the global financial crisis of 2008 hit. However, the market seems to be performing well currently, with continued profit recovery potentially justifying the tight high-yield spreads seen today.

Market Performance Comparison

High-yield bonds have experienced a slight increase in value this year, while the broader U.S. bond market has seen a decline in performance. For instance, the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF JNK has posted a total return of 0.4% so far in 2024, compared to the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF AGG which had a year-to-date loss of 1.8%.

Current Treasury Yields

At present, the rate on the 10-year Treasury note is around 4.29%, showing a slight decrease from previous levels. Two-year Treasury yields have remained relatively stable at around 4.68%.

Impacts of Past Financial Events

The high-yield bond market suffered significant losses during the global financial crisis in 2008, while safer bonds ended the year with gains. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF experienced a total loss of almost 25% in 2008, contrasting with the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF which saw a total return of 7.9% during the same period.