Shares of Arm Holdings PLC have faced a difficult start since their debut last week, with another Wall Street broker cautioning investors against buying at current levels. The semiconductor design company's stock, ARM, has experienced a significant decline, falling 18% in a five-day losing streak and losing approximately $11.7 billion in market capitalization.
On Thursday, the stock hit an intraday low of $49.85, 2.3% below the initial public offering price of $51. However, it managed to rebound slightly and closed at $52.16, down 1.4%. Despite these setbacks, some analysts remain cautious about the company's future prospects.
Susquehanna analysts Chris Rolland and Mehdi Hosseini, who recently began co-coverage of Arm, gave the stock a neutral rating with a $48 price target. While they provided different perspectives on the company, both agreed that it is not an opportune time to buy the stock.
Rolland expressed concerns about Arm's focus on maximizing royalty growth, potentially leading customers to explore alternative instruction set architectures and design architectures. Furthermore, the company plans to generate additional revenue through less profitable "subsystems" services.
It remains to be seen how Arm Holdings PLC will navigate these challenges and regain investor confidence in the near future.
Arm's Revenue Growth Strategy and Risks
Arm, a leading technology company, is exploring new avenues for revenue generation through "subsystem" optimization. However, industry analysts have highlighted the potential challenges that come with this approach.
According to Rolland, an industry expert, developing and supporting new custom products with "subsystem" optimization would involve higher expenses and lower profit margins due to the intensive engineering involved. Despite this, he finds the concept of new opportunities intriguing.
To achieve its goal of a 20% annual revenue growth, Arm has identified several key factors. First, the company aims to boost blended license and royalty average selling prices by 3% per year. Additionally, they plan to increase chip shipments by 8% annually. Finally, Arm envisions new system products generating around $1 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2027.
Although this growth strategy sounds promising, there are risks associated with it. One concern is the potential alienation of current customers as the company focuses on expanding into the new system opportunities market. Another risk is the increasing competition within the industry. Additionally, the fact that China contributes 20% to 25% of Arm's core licensing and royalty revenue poses a vulnerability to geopolitical factors.
Despite these risks, analysts evaluate the stock's risk/reward ratio as fairly valued. They acknowledge that Arm appears to be pushing royalty rates to their limits while also incorporating lower margin "subsystems" revenue into their business model.
In premarket trading, Arm's stock experienced a slight bounce of 1.0%.
Five brokers cover Arm, including Susquehanna, with four surveyed by FactSet. Among these brokers, only one expressed a bullish outlook, while three remained neutral and one took a bearish stance. Based on calculations using FactSet data, the average price target for Arm's stock is $51.
It's worth noting that while the Renaissance IPO ETF IPO experienced a 1.5% decline over the last three months, it has rallied by an impressive 25.3% year-to-date. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 index posted a modest 1.2% decline over the same three-month period but shows a solid 12.8% growth for the year.
Arm's revenue growth strategy and the potential risks involved present an intriguing outlook for investors and industry observers alike.